A Beautiful Mind - What John Nash Would Say About War Robots
Fellow Pilots,
John Forbes Nash, whose life got the Hollywood treatment in the movie "A Beautiful Mind," saw the world in a pretty unique way. He won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 1994, and his work has been used to describe everything from games to war and the nuclear arms race.
Our game, War Robots, is in a Nash Equilibrium. Sparing you a lot of abstract math, no player can benefit by changing strategies while the other players keep theirs unchanged. Despite the best efforts of many creative hangar builders, pilots with lightning quick reflexes, extremely intelligent tacticians, and even the faculty of the U, this game won't change.
We can divide the players of War Robots into two distinct sets. One group plays the matches they are given, and one group seeks unfair matches. Unfortunately, both groups appear in our twelve-person battles with regularity, no matter what the league. For the purposes of this discussion - and on the forums/blogs/interwebs - these groups are playing against each other every bit as much as the blue team plays against the red team.
The players who seek fair battles don't change their behavior because they believe it would be unethical or morally wrong. They don't leave battles, they don't lose on purpose, and they don't allow their rating to alter their game play. And indeed, changing strategies won't benefit them - they'll get stuck in the low priority queue, have diminished rewards and supply drops, get dismissed from their clans, and get shamed by their peers.
The players who seek unfair matches (whether they are big spenders or big tankers) don't change their behavior because rewards would be harder to come by for them. No more easy gold, no more million damage games and silver payouts, and no more 50-game winning streaks.
So we are stuck. I hesitate to use the word "balance," because it has a positive connotation in video games and in Star Wars, but War Robots is in equilibrium and it prevents each and every pilot from changing their overall strategy.
HeyCheese in Bronze league play are totally indestructible. The "dash" is unnecessary because the shield can do all the work. This player isn't going to change strategy!
Their pilots can win every game, and score big payoffs in silver and gold.
They will repeat this pattern tens of thousands of times.
As for the people who seek fair battles, don't scoff at this very real and very strong social norm. It is built in to us as powerfully as our love for the smell of meat cooked over fire. Economics tells us a bit about our sense of fairness, too, in "ultimatum games" - experiments designed to simulate a negotiation.
Here's how it works: you and I are conditionally given $20. I must make ONE offer for splitting the loot, and must you accept it. Only then do we share the $20. If you reject my one-time offer, we both get nothing. Nada. Zip.
Ready?
My offer - you get $1. I get $19. After all, I'm the guy with the envelope.
Think about your answer. Would you accept $1?
Economics is about human behavior. How do we get what we want? How do we choose among all our options? Do we always act in rational ways? You rejected the offer of $1, right? You'd reject $2, or $3 ... but you'd probably take $8 or $9. You'd be a little bit better off with the dollar, as opposed to not having it. But like almost all people in these experiments, you didn't do the thing that would make you a dollar richer. You rejected the offer, and we both got nothing - except an insight into human social interaction. We have a deep-seated preference for fairness; for democratic societies to work well, they need to be provide equal opportunity to all. The people who play fair in War Robots aren't going to change.
In yesterday's post, I asked Pixonic whether new players were staying in the game once they encountered the unfair pilots and experienced a couple vigorous clubbings. If new players are staying, perhaps the game will be OK in the long run. But if they decide to spend their time and money elsewhere, War Robots could be in trouble. It's a competitive world, especially for the entertainment dollars in young peoples' skinny jeans pockets.
Next post will forward some solutions for Pixonic, but I'm not ready to promise it for Friday just yet. I'm planning a weekend in London that may begin before the next installment is fully cooked. If this occurs, please re-read "Winning At War Robots" and wait on the edge of your seats for Monday! Also, make sure any "Art of the Assist" entries are in by midnight (GMT) on Monday, 26th of February. I'd hate to give your Bulgasari to someone else ...
Until then I remain at the mercy of the matchmaking gods,
Where Y'at?, phD
Art of the Assist 1: http://warrobotsu.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/the-art-of-assist-begins-today.html
Art 2: http://warrobotsu.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/art-of-assist-part-2-late-game-heroics.html
Art 3: http://warrobotsu.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/final-week-of-contest-twins.html
Faculty Notes
Our game, War Robots, is in a Nash Equilibrium. Sparing you a lot of abstract math, no player can benefit by changing strategies while the other players keep theirs unchanged. Despite the best efforts of many creative hangar builders, pilots with lightning quick reflexes, extremely intelligent tacticians, and even the faculty of the U, this game won't change.
We can divide the players of War Robots into two distinct sets. One group plays the matches they are given, and one group seeks unfair matches. Unfortunately, both groups appear in our twelve-person battles with regularity, no matter what the league. For the purposes of this discussion - and on the forums/blogs/interwebs - these groups are playing against each other every bit as much as the blue team plays against the red team.
The players who seek fair battles don't change their behavior because they believe it would be unethical or morally wrong. They don't leave battles, they don't lose on purpose, and they don't allow their rating to alter their game play. And indeed, changing strategies won't benefit them - they'll get stuck in the low priority queue, have diminished rewards and supply drops, get dismissed from their clans, and get shamed by their peers.
The players who seek unfair matches (whether they are big spenders or big tankers) don't change their behavior because rewards would be harder to come by for them. No more easy gold, no more million damage games and silver payouts, and no more 50-game winning streaks.
So we are stuck. I hesitate to use the word "balance," because it has a positive connotation in video games and in Star Wars, but War Robots is in equilibrium and it prevents each and every pilot from changing their overall strategy.
HeyCheese in Bronze league play are totally indestructible. The "dash" is unnecessary because the shield can do all the work. This player isn't going to change strategy!
Their pilots can win every game, and score big payoffs in silver and gold.
They will repeat this pattern tens of thousands of times.
As for the people who seek fair battles, don't scoff at this very real and very strong social norm. It is built in to us as powerfully as our love for the smell of meat cooked over fire. Economics tells us a bit about our sense of fairness, too, in "ultimatum games" - experiments designed to simulate a negotiation.
Here's how it works: you and I are conditionally given $20. I must make ONE offer for splitting the loot, and must you accept it. Only then do we share the $20. If you reject my one-time offer, we both get nothing. Nada. Zip.
Ready?
My offer - you get $1. I get $19. After all, I'm the guy with the envelope.
Think about your answer. Would you accept $1?
Economics is about human behavior. How do we get what we want? How do we choose among all our options? Do we always act in rational ways? You rejected the offer of $1, right? You'd reject $2, or $3 ... but you'd probably take $8 or $9. You'd be a little bit better off with the dollar, as opposed to not having it. But like almost all people in these experiments, you didn't do the thing that would make you a dollar richer. You rejected the offer, and we both got nothing - except an insight into human social interaction. We have a deep-seated preference for fairness; for democratic societies to work well, they need to be provide equal opportunity to all. The people who play fair in War Robots aren't going to change.
In yesterday's post, I asked Pixonic whether new players were staying in the game once they encountered the unfair pilots and experienced a couple vigorous clubbings. If new players are staying, perhaps the game will be OK in the long run. But if they decide to spend their time and money elsewhere, War Robots could be in trouble. It's a competitive world, especially for the entertainment dollars in young peoples' skinny jeans pockets.
Next post will forward some solutions for Pixonic, but I'm not ready to promise it for Friday just yet. I'm planning a weekend in London that may begin before the next installment is fully cooked. If this occurs, please re-read "Winning At War Robots" and wait on the edge of your seats for Monday! Also, make sure any "Art of the Assist" entries are in by midnight (GMT) on Monday, 26th of February. I'd hate to give your Bulgasari to someone else ...
Until then I remain at the mercy of the matchmaking gods,
Where Y'at?, phD
Art of the Assist 1: http://warrobotsu.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/the-art-of-assist-begins-today.html
Art 2: http://warrobotsu.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/art-of-assist-part-2-late-game-heroics.html
Art 3: http://warrobotsu.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/final-week-of-contest-twins.html
Faculty Notes
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The U is not just a blog ... we are also iOS clans #48669 [theU] for Masters/Champs and #139479 [U-2] for Diamond/Expert. We welcome skilled communicators from around the world.
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